How Russia’s Ukraine Invasion is Threatening East Africa’s Food Security

Image: A cargo ship loaded with grain in the Azov Sea Port, Rostov region of Ukraine.

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has far-reaching consequences, and one of the most pressing concerns is the impact on East Africa’s food security. The region, which relies heavily on imports of essential commodities, is facing a severe food crisis exacerbated by the war. In this article, we will explore the effects of the conflict on East Africa’s food security and what can be done to mitigate these challenges.

The Impact of the Conflict on Global Food Supplies

Before Russia’s invasion, Ukraine was a major supplier of grain, accounting for approximately 10% of the global trade in wheat, corn, and barley. The uninterrupted flow of these exports to countries with acute food needs was vital for maintaining global food security. However, the war has disrupted trade and distorted prices, replacing predictability with volatility. While other factors also contribute to inflation and uncertainty, Russia’s actions have significantly exacerbated these issues.

The Effects on East Africa

For Kenya, a net food importer, reliable and affordable imports are essential. Over the past year, many Kenyans have experienced sharp increases in the cost of living, with rising prices for food, fuel, and electricity. The most vulnerable populations have been hit hardest: by mid-2022, over 6 million Kenyans were malnourished, with a million on the brink of starvation.

Image: A market in Kenya showing high food prices.

Efforts to Stabilize Prices and Supplies

Efforts have been made to stabilize prices and supplies. In July 2022, the Black Sea Grain Initiative was established, allowing Ukraine to safely export grain. However, Russia abruptly withdrew from the agreement, claiming that Western countries had not done enough to ease sanctions on Russian exports. This move was seen as a betrayal by African countries.

The Proposed Grain Hub in Mombasa

Despite the collapse of the initiative, Ukraine has continued to export agricultural produce through its own ‘maritime corridor,’ successfully suppressing Russian seaborne attacks. Notably, Ukraine achieved a significant victory by sinking The Moskva, Russia’s warship named after its capital and the pride of its Black Sea fleet. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) hailed Moskva’s loss as a “major victory for Ukraine” and suggested it likely undermined Russian morale. Since then, over 500 ships have exported more than 12 million tons of agricultural produce. Additionally, Kenya and Ukraine are collaborating on food security initiatives. In September 2023, Kenyan President William Ruto and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced plans to establish a grain hub in the Port of Mombasa to address food shortages in East Africa.

Conclusion

In conclusion, turning away from Russia’s unreliable promises and embracing strategic initiatives like the grain hub in Mombasa can pave the way for a more secure and prosperous East Africa. It is time for decisive action to protect the region’s food security and ensure a stable, sustainable future for all its citizens.

Image: A grain hub in the Port of Mombasa.